01/08/2025

AWM Q4 Investment Commentary

Global financial market returns were mixed for the quarter. The results of the US election sent stocks soaring in November. However, the party ended abruptly in December, when the Federal Reserve reduced its forecast for more interest rate cuts amid slower progress on inflation and an uncertain policy outlook.  The bond market had a tough quarter, with yields steadily climbing throughout October and again after the election.

  • The S&P 500 recovered from an October sell-off and generated solid returns before stumbling at the end of December.  For the quarter it was up 2.41%.
  • Returns were very narrow for the quarter, led by a handful of technology stocks. Growth stocks finished the quarter up over 6% while value stocks were down 2%.
  • After outperforming in the third quarter, dividend stocks had a negative performance in the fourth, down 1.8%.
  • Foreign stocks underperformed as fears of slower growth and potential weighed on their performance.  For the quarter, the MSCI EAFE index was down 8.06%.
  • The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice in the quarter and the target federal funds range ended 2024 at 4.25-4.50%.
  • U.S. bonds were down 3.06% for the quarter but finished the year up 1.25%.

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